Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Şatır O. (Yürütücü), AKIN TANRIÖVER A., Kemeç S., Aslantaş P., Yeler O., ERSOY MİRİCİ M.
Yükseköğretim Kurumları Destekli Proje, BAP Araştırma Projesi, 2018 - 2021
Intensive immigration activities were caused fast and irregular urbanization in 1990s in Turkey. In this case, suitability of the urban areas was unheeded. As a result of that situation, variables like surface structure, land form, soil ability, and ecosystem services were ignored in urban planning stage. Natural disasters that were occurred in high populated areas were increased awareness in time and multi-disciplined studies have been began during the planning stage. Recently, urban transformation projects came into question. Weak and unsuitable buildings were demolished to build new habitats in the cities which were got too much immigration. Istanbul 1999, Van 2011 and İzmir 2020 earthquakes were just some of tragic events in near past. The aim of this study was to define 2011 Van earthquakes effect as a sample on urban development by concreted maps spatially. In this case, Van urban sprawl was simulated without 2011 Van earthquakes based on urban development from 1988 to September 2011 (just before the earthquake) using Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CAMARKOV) approach. Effects of earthquake was determined on urban sprawl comparing modelling results with current built up areas. So that important physical and social factor weights and variability on urban sprawl were calculated under natural disaster affect. This study was a sample for the risky cities which haven’t been occurred a natural disaster yet to see the impacts of the disasters on urban sprawl. Van urban built up areas were mapped using high spatial resolution remote sensing instruments like SPOT, ASTER, Rapideye, Göktürk 2 and Rasat satellite images for 1988 – 2002 – 2011 and 2018 applying object based classification approach. First of all, model was calibrated and validated according to urban sprawl dynamics between 1988 and 2002, and 2011 was estimated. Estimated and real 2011 urban were compared each other, and model kappa accuracy coeffiency and overall accuracy were found to be 0.85 and 72% respectively. Base variables on urban sprawl were weighted according to actual urban changes for each period using weight of evidence (WOE) method. Standardization process was completed using fuzzy logic approach. Factor priorities (elevation, sun effect, distance from roads, distance from settlements, slope, soil depth and land use ability) were defined based on dynamics of urban changes. Urban sprawl was predicted without earthquake using 2002 – 2011 urban area change by validated model. Effects of the earthquake was evaluated comparing predicted and current 2018 urban change. As result of the study that Earthquake was effected urban sprawl around 2 times in positive way. If earthquake were not happen, 10% more built up area would be constructed on stability problem areas, and only 2% of the new city would be established on completely suitable grounds. Today this ratio is around 8%. Additionally, 7 main variable priorities that are effected urban sprawl such as distance from road, distance from settlements etc… were not change significantly. However, Urban sprawl has been started to move from flat fields to the slight slopes, and a little bit far from roads and settlements. It was determined that the spread into the city was accelerated as well as spread towards the periphery due to the earthquake.