Fitting the Itô Stochastic Differential Equation to the COVID-19 Data in Turkey

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Özdemir Çalıkuşu S., Erdoğan F.

MANAS Journal of Engineering, cilt.9, sa.2, ss.192-197, 2021 (Hakemli Dergi)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 9 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.51354/mjen.929656
  • Dergi Adı: MANAS Journal of Engineering
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.192-197
  • Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In this study, COVID-19 data in Turkey is investigated by Stochastic Differential Equation Modeling (SDEM). Firstly, parameters of SDE which occur in mentioned epidemic problem are estimated by using the maximum likelihood procedure. Then, we have obtained reasonable Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) based on the given COVID-19 data. Moreover, by applying Euler-Maruyama Approximation Method trajectories of SDE are achieved. The performances of trajectories are established by Chi-Square criteria. The results are acquired by using statistical software R-Studio.These results are also corroborated by graphical representation.