Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, cilt.16, sa.2, ss.399-415, 2026 (Scopus, TRDizin)
In this research, current and near-future potential earthquake zones in and around Muş basin (eastern Türkiye) are investigated using the instrumental period earthquake catalog and focal mechanism parameters of local earthquakes. For this purpose, the relationships between the b-value distributions and the Colulomb stress changes are interpreted with different depth ranges (5 to 25 km). Also, for a reliable prediction, the occurrence probabilities, recurrence periods of earthquakes, and the Z-value distribution (seismic quiescence areas) are taken into consideration. 15,722 earthquakes with moment magnitudes with 0.8Mw6.9 between the latitudes of 38.2°N-39.6°N and longitudes of 40.0°E-43.0°E, over a period of 90.63 years between November 12, 1934, and June 30, 2025, are used for all statistical analyses. Completeness magnitude, Mc-value is accepted as 2.50.5. The b-value is determined to be 0.780 ± 0.04, which is smaller than the average (b = 1.0). Additionally, twenty local events with magnitudes greater than Mw≥4.8 are selected to image the Coulomb stress changes. The occurrence probabilities of earthquakes with Mw=5.5, 6.5, and 6.9 in 10 years are predicted as 83%, 27% and 15%, respectively. Recurrence periods of events with these magnitudes are estimated as 13, 32, and 63 years, respectively. Large Z-values are detected in the Kargapazarı segment, Bingöl province, and west of the Kulp and Kozluk segments. Additionally, the analyses of b-value and Coulomb stress change used for hazard prediction reveal a decreasing b-value and an increasing stress change around the Karlıova Triple Junction at a depth of approximately 10 km. Finally, these seismotectonic parameters can represent the possible locations for earthquake occurrences in the near future.