Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, cilt.11, sa.2, ss.519-534, 2023 (Hakemli Dergi)
Çaldıran fault zone and its vicinity are
significant seismically active zone that generated many destructive
earthquakes. In this fault system, the last of these
major earthquakes occurred on November 24, 1976 (Ms
= 7.3). Therefore, based on the seismotectonic b-value, earthquake
probability, recurrence times and Coulomb stress changes, we investigate the future earthquake potential
and positive/negative stress changes in this fault zone. The events with a magnitude greater than 3.6 are
used to investigate stress transfer direction regarding the seismotectonic
parameters. The results indicate that the regions having smaller b-values are obtained along with the
southeast part of the Çaldıran fault zone, whilst higher b-values are calculated around the eastern part of Lake
Van. On the other hand, the northeast part of the Çaldıran fault zone
represents current stress accumulation. Similarly, the Coulomb stress
variations of the 1976 earthquake show that stress accumulated at different
depths in the northwest of this fault system. In addition, considering the
long-term slip rates and horizontal offset in previous studies, the
recurrence time of the earthquakes has approximately 302 years for a
magnitude greater than 6.0. Finally, these comprehensive analyses explain
the implications of seismic hazard evaluation and forecasting of possible
next earthquake occurrences in this region. |