Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
7th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MATHEMATICS “An Istanbul Meeting for World Mathematicians”, İstanbul, Türkiye, 11 - 13 Temmuz 2023, ss.1-7
The Yedisu Segment is one of the most significant
seismic gaps along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Türkiye) since a
large/devastating earthquake did not occur for a long time. For this reason, an investigation of the earthquake hazard potential
in and around the Yedisu Segment was achieved in the scope of this study and some statistical parameters such as the b-value, earthquake probability and
recurrence time were analyzed for a hazard implication. For the
statistical analyses, a homogeneous database according to moment magnitude
(1.0<Mw£7.7) including 47.855 earthquakes for the time
interval between 1905 and 2022, about 116.57 years, was used. b-value was estimated as 0.80±0.1 by
using a magnitude of completeness, Mc-value,
as 2.5 and it is close to typical b=~1.0 for magnitude-frequency relationship. This
relatively small b-value may be
caused by the abundance of aftershocks with Mw³4.0. The areas with the smallest b-values (<0.8) were observed on the Erzincan, Yedisu and
Kargapazarı Segments, in the northeast part of Ovacık Fault, in and around the
Varto Fault Zone, Turnadağ Volcano and Varto Caldera. These regions are related
to great-magnitude earthquakes and reveal high earthquake potential in the
study region. Thus, b-value
estimation shows a good relation with seismic and tectonic structures. The
probabilities of the earthquakes with Mw=6.0, 6.5 and 7.0 in the intermediate
term (10 years) are estimated as ~20%, ~8%, and ~3%, respectively. Recurrence times of earthquakes for
Mw=6.0, 6.5 and 7.0 are calculated as ~46, ~130 and ~350 years, respectively. As a remarkable
fact, these
region-magnitude-time analyses provide the implications of earthquake hazard
evaluation and forecasting the possible future earthquake occurrences in this
region.