A Study on the Earthquake Hazard and Forecasting in the Lake Van and its surroundings, Turkey

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Öztürk S., Alkan H.

6th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MATHEMATICS “An Istanbul Meeting for World Mathematicians”, İstanbul, Turkey, 21 - 24 June 2022, pp.82-91

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: İstanbul
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.82-91
  • Van Yüzüncü Yıl University Affiliated: Yes


In this study, statistical region-time analyses of current earthquake activity in the Lake Van and its adjacent area are performed by considering the Relative Intensity (RI), Pattern Informatics (PI), combined forecast model (RIPI) and Coulomb stress variations. The relations between these variables are used to evaluate the recent earthquake hazard and to make earthquake forecasting in and around the Lake Van. These types of techniques are well-known and have been used in earthquake statistics, especially in statistical seismology. The results show that the areas especially having great stressed distributions at the beginning of 2022 and hotspot locations from combined forecast map between 2022 and 2032 are detected in several same parts of the study area including Erciş and Yeniköşk faults, Van and Saray fault zones between Muradiye, Özalp, Erçek, Van and Gevaş. As a remarkable fact, all anomaly areas of estimated parameters are observed in the same parts of the study region and therefore, these anomaly areas estimated at the beginning of 2022 and also between 2022 and 2032 may be considered as one of the most likely zones for the next strong/large earthquakes. Thus, the interrelationships between these variables may supply more accurate and more reliable interpretations for earthquake forecasting and hazard assessment in this part of Turkey.