Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
10th International Mardin Artuklu Scientific Researches Conference MAY 19-21, 2023 / MARDIN, TÜRKİYE, Mardin, Türkiye, 19 - 21 Mayıs 2023, ss.1-10
The southeastern end of Türkiye is formed with the multi-segmented
large fault systems accommodated by strike-slip faults oriented NW-SE and NE-SW,
thrust/reverse faults oriented EW and NS-oriented extension fissures or normal
faults. This zone has not produced
large/destructive earthquakes for a long time. The last earthquake with a
magnitude of 5.0 occurred near the Konalga segment in 2012. Therefore, based on
several seismotectonic parameters such as b-value,
recurrence times, earthquake
probability and Coulomb
stress changes, we investigate the earthquake hazard in and around the
southeastern part of Türkiye. To achieve a statistical
evaluation, a homogeneous catalog according to moment magnitude
(Mw) which includes 2818 earthquakes with 1.0<Mw£5.9 between October 26, 1958 and December 27, 2022, is
used. b-value is determined as 0.83±0.05 and it is smaller than
the mean value of b=1.0, which is
accepted for the Gutenberg-Richter scaling law. This b-value means that an increasing stress situation may exist in this
part of Türkiye. Also, probabilities of the earthquakes for Mw=5.0, 5.5 and 5.9
in the intermediate term (10 years) are determined as ~68.39%, ~35.79% and ~18.64%, respectively. Recurrence times of earthquakes
with Mw=5.0, 5.5 and 5.9 are estimated as ~9, ~23 and ~48 years, respectively. The results show that the regions with smaller b-values are calculated in Beğendik,
Konalga, Hakkari, Yüksekova, Şemdinli and Çubuklu segments. Also, Coulomb
stress change maps demonstrate 4 positive and 4 negative stress lobes. Positive
stress lobes stretch across the Konalga, Hakkari, Işıklar and Çubuklu segments. These
regions represent current stress accumulation. According to the stress
variation maps, it is observed that stress is transferred towards the end of the
Yüksekova-Şemdinli Fault zone, especially at shallow depths. Moreover, this
stress increase is caused by the southeast Anatolian Thrust zone. Consequently,
these types of multiple parameter analyses are necessary to describe the
current and future seismic hazard of the region. Almost all the anomaly regions
of seismotectonic parameters are estimated almost in the same parts of the
study region and hence, these anomaly regions observed at the beginning of
2023 may be one of the most possible areas for future strong/large earthquake
occurrences. Thus, the correlations among these
parameters may supply preliminary and useful information for the current earthquake
hazard assessment in southeastern part of Türkiye.