Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
International Conference on Mathematics and Computers with Applications, İstanbul, Türkiye, 16 - 18 Temmuz 2025, ss.1-8, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
In the scope of this study, current earthquake
potential and hazard assessment in and around Muş province of Türkiye was
achieved by considering several seismotectonic parameters such as b-value of magnitude-frequency
distribution of earthquakes and Coulomb stress analysis. We used a rectangular
region limited by the co-ordinates 38.2°N-39.6°N in latitude and the
co-ordinates 40.0°E-43.0°E in longitude. Earthquake database was compiled from Boğazici University,
Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute and it is homogeneous for moment
magnitude, Mw. Earthquake catalog has
a time period of 90.13-years from November 12, 1934 to December 31, 2024, and
there exist 15,312 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1.0£Mw£6.9. This seismic zone has been subjected to
strong/large earthquakes after 2020. The last two earthquakes occurred in the
study region in June 14, 2020 (Mw=5.8)
and February 17, 2023 (Mw=5.0)
clearly show the current earthquake hazard in this part of Türkiye. There exist
regional variations in b-value
between 0.55 and 1.36. The lowest b-values
(<0.8) were observed some areas including Yedisu, Kargapazarı, Elmalı,
Karlıova, Lice-Dicle, Kulp and Kozluk segments, on the Muş, Varto and Kavakbaşı
Fault zones, and also in and around Yenisu, Yayla, Nemrut, Akdağ and Akdoğan
Gölü faults. In addition, 14 local events with Mw≥4.8 since 2010 in the study region were used for the Coulomb
stress estimations. According to Coulomb stress distributions, some parts of
the study region have positive stress lobes (>0.01 in bars) and this parts
cover Yedisu, Kargapazarı, Elmalı, Karlıova, Lice-Dicle and Palu segments,
Bingöl, the northwest part of Muş Fault zone and southwest of Varo Fault zone,
and the area between Kazbel, Akdoğan Gölü and Haçlı Gölü faults. The
observations on b-value and stress
distributions are quite related to seismic activity and faulting mechanisms in
the region, respectively. Seismic zones with low b-values and positive stress distributions are significant for
seismic hazard evaluation and these regions may be interpreted as the most
likely areas for the future earthquake occurrences. Hence, special attention
must be given paid to these regions for the quantitative appraisal of
earthquake potential. As a remarkable fact, analyzing the earthquake
characteristics with different seismotectonic variables will contribute to
earthquake potential and hazard studies in the next future.