Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
6th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MATHEMATICS “An Istanbul Meeting for World Mathematicians”, İstanbul, Türkiye, 21 - 24 Haziran 2022, ss.553-560
In the scope of this
study, a statistical assessment of earthquake behaviors in the Çaldıran Fault
Zone and its surroundings is achieved by using the seismotectonic b-value of Gutenberg-Richter relation,
probability, and return periods of the earthquakes. Multiple parameters
evaluation between these variables is considered for
the possible future earthquake forecasting and current hazard assessment. For the analyses, a homogeneous database including 6169 earthquakes with
1.0≤Md≤ 5.6 between July
12, 1975 and December 29, 2021 was used. Completeness magnitude is estimated as 2.6 for the
study region and the b-value of
magnitude-frequency distribution is calculated as 1.07±0.09. This result shows
that the b-value of the study area is
well represented by the Gutenberg-Richter scaling law. Regional distribution of b-value indicates that the areas having the
lower b-values (<1.0) are
generally observed in all parts of the study region including the Çaldıran fault
consisting of Alaçayır, Hidirmenteş and Gülderen segments,
Hasan Timur fault, Dorutay fault, and Saray fault zone. The probabilities
earthquake occurrences with Md=6.0
in Tr = 10, 20, 50, 70 and 100 years
are estimated as about 4 %, 7 %, 18 %, 23 % and 32 %, respectively. Also, the
return periods of Md=5.0,
5.5, and 6.0 earthquakes are calculated as about 29, 90, and 300 years,
respectively. The results of probabilities and return periods suggest that
earthquake occurrences ranging from 3.0-4.5 magnitude levels are more likely
than those of the other occurrences in the short term. Çaldıran Fault zone and its adjacent region
are very active seismically and tectonically, and many strong/destructive
earthquakes occurred in the historical and instrumental periods; the
last of these major earthquakes occurred on November 24, 1976 (MS=7.3). As a remarkable fact, the results of the present
study can be used as a promising guide for earthquake forecasting and further hazard potential in this part of
Turkey in the intermediate and long terms.