Red Sea rerouting during the first EU ETS shipping year: Ship-level distance and operational-speed evidence
Transport Policy, cilt.190, 2027 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 190
- Basım Tarihi: 2027
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104481
- Dergi Adı: Transport Policy
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Compendex, Geobase, Index Islamicus, Public Affairs Index, Urban Studies Abstracts, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: GFW port-event data, Maritime carbon pricing, Ship emissions, Suez canal, THETIS-MRV, Triple difference-in-differences
- Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
The European Union extended its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to maritime transport in January 2024, the month in which Red Sea attacks pushed much of world shipping onto the Cape of Good Hope route. Early evaluations risk conflating the two shocks. This study estimates how exposure to both events shaped ship-level outcomes in the first compliance year. We combined EU monitoring data for 3678 cargo vessels (2018–2024) with a pre-treatment Suez-route exposure proxy constructed from geolocated vessel events, and estimated triple difference-in-differences models with ship and year fixed effects, using ship-type-by-year fixed effects for preferred speed inference. A one-standard-deviation increase in the proxy predicted a 6.3% increase in 2024 sailing distance; this pattern is consistent with, but does not uniquely identify, rerouting exposure. At the joint exposure margin, annual operational speed was 2.1% lower—about 0.24 knots at the sample mean—and this was the only interaction to survive Holm correction across seven outcomes (adjusted p = 0.003). Annual data cannot attribute this to deliberate slow steaming. Distance, emissions and estimated compliance-cost interactions ranged from −0.018 to +0.005, while their confidence intervals remained too wide for an equivalence claim. Because RSI incorporates post-treatment distance in its construction, its estimates are reported only as secondary descriptive evidence. First-year assessments that do not condition on route exposure therefore risk reading rerouting as a carbon-price response, an error the same monitoring data and event records already allow evaluators to avoid.