IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION COINTEGRARTION ANALYSIS: A SAMPLE OF ERBIL CITY


Van M. H. , Ismael Z. O.

International World Energy Conference, Kayseri, Turkey, 3 - 04 December 2021, pp.221-225

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: Kayseri
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.221-225

Abstract

Identifying changes in energy consumption can be affected by climate change. The rising intensity of climate change, especially global warming, will have a negative impact on energy consumers and power companies economically. As a result, it is vital to identify the primary challenges that will determine how changes in the economy, environment, and technology as a result of climate change affect the energy system's future. The objective of studu is to analyze the long-term link between electricity usage and climatic factors such as air temperature, humidity, and wind speed in Erbil city of Iraq, using monthly data from 2009 to 2019. Data were obtained from two sources. First one, the electricity load data wass obtained from the Erbil directorate of electricity. The latter, wind speed, temperature, and rate of humidity, were obtained from the general directorate of agriculture and weather. In this study, the dependent variable is electrical load, and the independent variables are humidity, temperature, and wind speed. For this purpose, firstly, the graphs of the series were examined to see the general course of the series. Then, ACF and PACF graphs were examined to understand whether there was seasonality or not. Then, the stationarity of the series was examined by conventional unit root tests. The cointegration relationship between the electricity load and wind speed series, which are stationary in their first difference, is tested with the Jonahansen cointegration method. The cointegration relationship between the electrical load, wind speed, and air temperature and humidity series, which are stationary at different levels, was tested using the ARDL method. According to the results obtained, it has been determined that the series of electric load and wind speed move together in the long run. According to the ARDL model estimation results, it was found that there is a statistically significant long-term relationship between electric charge and humidity, wind speed and air temperature. These results show that climate change will increase energy use.