Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
17 th INTERNATIONAL MARDIN ARTUKLU SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHES CONFERENCE , Mardin, Türkiye, 1 - 03 Haziran 2026, ss.406-414, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
The
Yemişli-Simav earthquake with magnitude 5.4, which occurred on September 28,
2025, near Simav district of Kütahya, Türkiye, has provided crucial data for
assessing the current earthquake potential and future earthquake hazard in the
region which is situated between the Gediz and Simav Fault Zones. The Western
Anatolia Graben System is one of the most significant systems in the Eastern
Mediterranean, and due to active tectonics, this area has been experienced to
numerous strong and destructive earthquakes during both historical and
instrumental periods. The dominance of normal fault systems in the study region
indicates that the region is under the influence of extensional tectonic
regime. According to the Turkish Earthquake Hazard Map (DD-1), Simav and its
surroundings are classified as a first-degree earthquake zone and is one of the
regions having the highest earthquake hazard. Therefore, a statistical analysis
was conducted in this study in order to determine the current earthquake
potential and future earthquake hazard in Simav and its vicinity. For the
analyses, the b-value, the most frequently used in earthquake statistics
and closely related to the seismotectonic structure of the region, and Coulomb
stress distribution, which reveal stress variations in a region, were mapped.
For the regional b-value map, 28,464 earthquakes with moment magnitudes
ranging from 0.3≤Mw≤6.9, occurring between March 19, 1952, and December
31, 2025, covering approximately 73.79 years, within latitudes 38.8°N-39.6°N
and longitudes 28.4°E-29.8°E, were analyzed. For the Coulomb stress map, the
focal mechanism solutions of the Yemişli-Simav mainshock and its five
aftershocks (Mw≥4.0) were used. According to the obtained results, the b-value
varies from 0.68 to 1.58. Small b-values (<0.9) were observed around
the Tavşanlı, Şahmelek, Çavdarhisar, and Çukurören faults, as well as the
Emet-Gediz Fault Zone, Simav Fault Zone, and east of the Gediz Fault Zone.
Positive Coulomb stress values are corresponded to high-stress areas and were
observed near the Emet-Gediz Fault Zone, Gediz Fault Zone, Simav Fault Zone,
Naşa Fault Zone, Çavdarhisar Fault, Çukurören Fault, and Selendi Fault. Areas
exhibiting both small b-values and positive stress anomalies may be
considered the areas where a possible future earthquake may occur. Therefore,
such statistical evaluations provide valuable insights for estimating the
current earthquake potential and future earthquake hazard and these anomalous
regions should particularly be considered for seismotectonic analyses.