Automation and Container Throughput: Heterogeneous Evidence from a Staggered Difference-in-Differences Design
JOURNAL OF ETA MARITIME SCIENCE, cilt.14, sa.3, ss.383-395, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus, TRDizin)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 14 Sayı: 3
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.4274/jems.2026.77527
- Dergi Adı: JOURNAL OF ETA MARITIME SCIENCE
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Applied Science & Technology Source, Scopus, Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Central & Eastern European Academic Source (CEEAS), Directory of Open Access Journals, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.383-395
- Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Fully automated container terminals promised step changes in throughput, yet the empirical record rests on engineering simulations and cross-sectional efficiency scores that do not identify the causal effect of adoption. We provide an exploratory causal assessment of port-level throughput after automation by applying the Callaway-Sant’Anna staggered difference-in-differences estimator to a port-year panel of 56 container ports from 2001 to 2024, covering seven adoption cohorts. Synthetic control, changes-in-changes, and a size-matched placebo provide complementary checks. The pooled average treatment effect on log throughput is +0.112 [95% uniform confidence band (-0.015, 0.240)]. One atypical cohort (Abu Dhabi 2020) is the single largest influence on the pooled estimate; its weight in the aggregate is limited by a short post-adoption window. Confidence bands for five of the remaining six cohorts include zero, and the Abu Dhabi estimate is fragile with respect to identification under the donor-pool and Oster-bound diagnostics. The size-matched placebo yields an ATT of +0.075 (-0.114, 0.263); therefore, the treated-port estimate is not statistically distinguishable from placebo variation. A dose-response specification at two dual-terminal port-clusters (Rotterdam and San Pedro Bay) is consistent with saturation rather than additive gains. The evidence reframes the port-level throughput response to automation as context-conditional rather than uniform, with implications for infrastructure lending and terminal investment appraisal.