THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT AND EXCHANGE RATES ON PREMIUM PRODUCTION IN STATE-SUPPORTED AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE IN TURKIYE
3th International Congress of Economic and Administrative Studies, Prizren, Kosova, 21 - 23 Mayıs 2026, ss.68, (Özet Bildiri)
- Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Özet Bildiri
- Basıldığı Şehir: Prizren
- Basıldığı Ülke: Kosova
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.68
- Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Agriculture plays a key role in ensuring food security, sustaining exports, and maintaining macroeconomic stability. Yet the sector remains highly susceptible to disruptive forces such as climate change, pandemics, and economic crises. In this context, agricultural insurance serves as a financial mechanism that compensates for adverse and unforeseen events, with premium production being a key indicator of insurance activity. The primary objective of this study is to identify and analyse the relationships between agricultural credit utilization, the exchange rate, and premium production in statesupported agricultural insurance schemes. Within this scope, both the impact of credit utilization and the influence of the exchange rate—as a macroeconomic indicator—are examined to determine the principal drivers of premium production. The relationship between the exchange rate and premium production is theorized through two main transmission channels: at the micro level, a cost channel reflecting the impact of exchange rate-indexed claim costs on insurance pricing; and at the macro level, an income channel capturing the effects of exchange rate movements on the general price level and household disposable income. Exchange rate fluctuations simultaneously affect both the supply-side cost structure of insurance products and consumer demand, thereby generating a complex pass-through mechanism on premium production. To construct a broad and robust sample, the study employs a monthly dataset covering 2014 to 2024. The empirical analysis draws on Fourier function-based econometric tests, namely the FKPSS test, the Fourier-Shin cointegration test, and the FTY (Fourier-TY) causality test. The findings obtained from the study indicate that an increase in agricultural credit raises both the number of insured risks and their corresponding insured values, thereby driving an expansion in premium production. Furthermore, the results confirm that both the exchange rate and agricultural credit exert statistically significant effects on premium production within state-supported agricultural insurance. This finding underscores that premium production in state-supported agricultural insurance is determined by prevailing macroeconomic and financial conditions. Conversely, it was also established that premium production does not exhibit a determining influence over the other variables under consideration. These findings carry practical implications for policymakers seeking to strengthen agricultural insurance systems, as they highlight the role of macroeconomic stability and credit access in driving premium production. Future studies are encouraged to incorporate alternative variables and methodologies to allow for comparison with the present results.