Carbon Intensity Trajectories in EU Shipping: A Seven-year Analysis of MRV Data

Pehlivan D., Gündoğan O.

JOURNAL OF ETA MARITIME SCIENCE, cilt.14, sa.3, ss.340-352, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus, TRDizin)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 14 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.4274/jems.2026.02212
  • Dergi Adı: JOURNAL OF ETA MARITIME SCIENCE
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Applied Science & Technology Source, Scopus, Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Central & Eastern European Academic Source (CEEAS), Directory of Open Access Journals, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.340-352
  • Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study analyzes carbon intensity trends across five major ship types calling at European Union (EU) ports, using seven years of official EU Monitoring, Reporting and Verification data (2018-2024). The dataset comprises 69,566 ship-year observations covering bulk carriers, container ships, oil tankers, chemical tankers, and general cargo ships. Linear regression analysis reveals heterogeneous decarbonization patterns: chemical tankers demonstrate the strongest improvement (-10.8%, R2=0.932, p<0.001), followed by oil tankers (-7.2%, p<0.01) and bulk carriers (-8.9%, p<0.1). Container ships show a modest reduction (-6.4%), which is not statistically significant, while general cargo ships exhibit near-complete stagnation (-0.3%). The 2023 implementation of the carbon intensity indicator regulation coincided with efficiency gains across most categories, although container ships experienced rebound effects in 2024. Gap analysis against International Maritime Organization’s 2030 target of a 20% reduction reveals critical compliance challenges: container ships require 3.3% annual improvement, which is triple their historical rate, while general cargo ships face a 20.4% gap and show no observable trend. These findings underscore the case for ship-type-specific policy interventions, particularly for container shipping, which has a disproportionate emissions footprint (53% of emissions from 20% of vessels).