Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
8th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MATHEMATICS “An Istanbul Meeting for World Mathematicians”, İstanbul, Türkiye, 9 - 11 Temmuz 2024, ss.330-337
In this study, we have investigated the earthquake hazard potential
of Izmir and Samos Island, Turkey, and their surroundings using the different
statistical and seismotectonic methods called Gutenberg-Richter relation and
Coulomb stress analysis. For this purpose, a rectangular area limited by the co-ordinates 37.0ºN and 39.0ºN in latitude and the
co-ordinates 26.0ºE and 28.0ºE in longitude was considered. Earthquake catalog
was taken from Boğazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake
Research Institute and the catalog is homogeneous for moment magnitude, Mw. Time interval of the
catalog is about 95.75-years between March 31, 1928 and December 31, 2023, and
the catalog consists of 64,089 events with magnitudes between 1.0£Mw£6.9. This region has produced strong/large earthquakes in recent years.
The last two earthquakes occurred in August 31, 2022 (Aegean Sea, Mw=5.1) and January
27, 2024 (Kuşadası Bay, Mw=5.1) clearly revealed the earthquake potential of
this region. Regional b-values change
between 0.65 and 1.48. Small b-values
(<1.0), were observed in the south, southwest and southeast part of the
study region including Samos Island, Büyük Menderes Graben System, Milas fault,
in the northwest part and in and around the Gediz Graben System. On the other
hand, for the Coulomb stress interactions, we used 20 local earthquakes (Mw≥5.0)
that occurred in the study region since 2010. According to Coulomb stress
distribution for different depth intervals, all depth intervals show positive
stress lobes (> 1.0 in bars) in and around Samos Island, Gediz Graben System
and SE Greece. On the contrary, negative stress lobes are observed off the
coasts of Seferhisar and Milas at shallow depths. These observations are
consistent with faulting mechanisms in the region, clustered with normal
faults. Regions with small b-values and positive stress changes may be important in terms of the possible
seismic hazard and these areas can be thought as the most likely place for a
strong/large earthquake. Therefore,
particular
attention on assessing the earthquake potential should be directed towards these regions. Thus, describing earthquake behaviors by evaluating
different statistical and seismotectonic parameters will contribute to earthquake
hazard studies in the intermediate/long terms.