Mathematical analysis of stochastic epidemic model of MERS-corona & application of ergodic theory

Hussain S., Tunç O., Rahman G. u., Khan H., Nadia E.

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, vol.207, pp.130-150, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 207
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.matcom.2022.12.023
  • Journal Name: Mathematics and Computers in Simulation
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Applied Science & Technology Source, Computer & Applied Sciences, INSPEC, Public Affairs Index, zbMATH
  • Page Numbers: pp.130-150
  • Keywords: MERS-corona virus, Ergodic theory, Disease persistat, Disease extinction, Stability
  • Van Yüzüncü Yıl University Affiliated: Yes


The “Middle East Respiratory” (MERS-Cov) is among the world's dangerous diseases that still exist. Presently it is a threat to Arab countries, but it is a horrible prediction that it may propagate like COVID-19. In this article, a stochastic version of the epidemic model, MERS-Cov, is presented. Initially, a mathematical form is given to the dynamics of the disease while incorporating some unpredictable factors. The study of the underlying model shows the existence of positive global solution. Formulating appropriate Lyapunov functionals, the paper will also explore parametric conditions which will lead to the extinction of the disease from a community. Moreover, to reveal that the infection will persist, ergodic stationary distribution will be carried out. It will also be shown that a threshold quantity exists, which will determine some essential parameters for exploring other dynamical aspects of the main model. With the addition of some examples, the underlying stochastic model of MERS-Cov will be studied graphically for more illustration.