Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
LATİN AMERİKA 10. ULUSLARARASI BİLİMSEL ARAŞTIRMALAR KONGRESİ, Habana, Küba, 1 - 04 Mayıs 2025, ss.1-10, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
The doublet earthquakes
in Kahramanmaraş (Mw=7.7 and 7.6) that occurred on February 6, 2023,
significantly impacted many active faults and fault zones, including Malatya,
Sürgü, Akçadağ, and Doğanşehir in Malatya province and its surrounding areas.
Therefore, it is crucial to determine the future earthquake potential of
Malatya and its surroundings. To this end, an analysis of the earthquake
activity before and after the October 16, 2024, Kale-Malatya earthquake
(Mw=5.9) was conducted. The study considered activities before and after the
mainshock. It evaluated the future earthquake potential using seismotectonic
parameters such as the b-value, which indicates the magnitude-frequency
relationship, as well as the occurrence probabilities of earthquakes and return
periods. The analysis utilized a dataset of 24,774 earthquakes, with magnitudes
ranging from 1.0 to 7.2, occurring between latitudes 38.0°N and 39.5°N and
longitudes 42.0°E and 44.0°E over approximately 119 years, from 1964 to 2024.
The study area was divided into two sub-regions: (i) the first region includes
the Malatya, Sürgü, and Akçadağ faults and the Doğanşehir Fault Zone, and (ii)
the second region encompasses the Erkenek, Pütürge, Narince, Gerger, and Çüngüş
segments. For Region 1, a b-value of 0.83±0.12 was calculated before the
mainshock and 0.77±0.06 after. In Region 2, the b-values were estimated to be
0.84±0.09 before the mainshock and 0.81±0.09 afterward. These b-values, which
are relatively low compared to the average accepted value of b=1.0, are due to
the prevalence of earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw≥4.0 in Malatya and its
surroundings. In Region 1, small b-values before and after the mainshock were
observed around the Akçadağ and Sürgü faults, the Doğanşehir Fault Zone, and
Kale. In Region 2, small b-values before and after the mainshock were noted
around the Sürgü fault and the Erkenek, Narince, Pütürge, and Gerger segments.
For Regions 1 and -2, the estimated probabilities of an earthquake occurring
with a magnitude of Mw=6.0 in the intermediate term (10 years) were
approximately 22% and 7%, respectively. The calculated return periods for an
earthquake of this magnitude in Regions 1 and -2 were 40 years and 77 years,
respectively. Therefore, collectively analyzing the earthquake activities
before and after the mainshock will contribute to evaluating future earthquake
potential.