Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, cilt.33, sa.1, ss.347-355, 2023 (Hakemli Dergi)
Abstract: Large-scale forest fires can cause significant ecological losses. Additionally, preserving forest areas may help to slow down climate change. Statistical models are one of the tools used in planning fire management strategies. In this study, the burned forest area of Türkiye is modeled using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method following the identification, estimation, validation, and forecasting steps. As is known the ARIMA analysis is one of the popular techniques used in time series analysis. Annual total burned forest areas in Türkiye over the period 1940-2021 are considered in the analysis. Three preliminary models are considered for evaluation of their modeling and prediction performances. The models' validities are investigated with Ljung–Box statistics, residual analysis, and cross-validation. According to the results, the ARIMA (3,1,0) model is found to be the most suitable model for predicting the future values of the burned forest area time series in Türkiye. Forecasts for Türkiye’s burned forest areas series are obtained for the next 3 years accordingly.